“I knew it.”
We’ve all said it.
After a new hire quits.
After an employee becomes a top performer.
After someone interviews well but struggles in the role.
Looking back, it’s easy to believe we knew all along.
But did we?
People decisions are different from almost every other decision we make at work.
If sales are down, we review the numbers.
If expenses increase, we analyze the budget.
If a project falls behind, we examine the timeline.
People are different.
They don’t come with a spreadsheet or a rule book.
Should we hire this person?
Should we give them more time to master the job?
Was that comment simply a bad day, or does it point to a bigger issue?
Should we coach, document, or move on?
People decisions are rarely made with complete information. They’re made with the best information available at the time.
That means leaders rely on:
- Conversations
- Observations
- References
- Experience
- And yes…instinct.
The challenge is knowing when instinct is helping us and when it is quietly leading us in the wrong direction.
Our instincts are shaped by experience. Over time, we recognize patterns we can’t always explain. We notice something feels off before we can clearly articulate why.
That’s valuable.
But instinct can also be surprisingly convincing when it’s wrong.
We mistake:
Familiarity for fit.
Confidence for competence.
Similarity for capability.
So, when should you trust your instincts about people?
Once you’ve answered your own questions.
Instinct is a starting point, not the finish line.
Instinct may tell you where to look. It won’t decide what you find.
Before making a people decision, ask yourself:
What do I know?
Separate facts from conclusions.
What am I assuming?
We all fill in gaps. The trick is recognizing when we’re doing it.
What else do I need to learn?
One more conversation may completely change the decision.
Take interviewing as an example.
Most of us know within the first few minutes whether we “like” a candidate.
Maybe they’re confident.
Maybe the conversation flows easily.
Maybe they remind us of someone we’ve worked with before.
That’s exactly when your questions matter most.
What am I hearing?
Listen for specifics, not generalities. Strong candidates describe situations, behaviors, and results.
What questions haven’t I asked?
Where is your instinct telling you there’s more to uncover?
What do I still need to know?
A great interview doesn’t automatically mean a great employee.
Sometimes your instinct is right.
Sometimes it isn’t.
The difference isn’t experience.
The difference is curiosity.
So, when should you trust your instincts about people?
After you’ve asked enough questions to understand whether your instinct is pointing you toward the truth or simply toward your assumptions.
Trust your instincts enough to investigate them.
Don’t trust them enough to make the decision.
